IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.3	#291
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.1	#73
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.9	#307

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#243

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.8%	5.4%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	14.9	15.5

.500 or above	26.6%	67.6%	25.8%
.500 or above in Conference	36.2%	67.7%	35.6%
Conference Champion	0.7%	1.6%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	1.8%	1.4%	1.8%
First Round	2.9%	5.4%	2.9%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 4	8 - 5	9 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	31	@ Stanford	L	60-82	2%
Nov 28, 2020	54	@ BYU	L	66-86	3%
Dec 09, 2020	192	Southern Utah	L	72-74	42%
Dec 12, 2020	169	Wyoming	L	68-72	37%
Dec 15, 2020	67	@ Utah	L	63-82	5%
Dec 19, 2020	299	Idaho St.	W	76-72	63%
Dec 23, 2020	225	@ Air Force	L	73-79	30%
Jan 08, 2021	271	California Baptist	W	77-75	57%
Jan 09, 2021	271	California Baptist	W	77-75	57%
Jan 15, 2021	286	@ Seattle	L	74-77	39%
Jan 16, 2021	286	@ Seattle	L	74-77	39%
Feb 05, 2021	345	@ Chicago St.	W	70-63	73%
Feb 06, 2021	345	@ Chicago St.	W	70-63	73%
Feb 12, 2021	337	Dixie St.	W	69-59	80%
Feb 13, 2021	337	Dixie St.	W	69-59	81%
Feb 19, 2021	92	@ New Mexico St.	L	60-76	10%
Feb 20, 2021	92	@ New Mexico St.	L	60-76	9%
Feb 26, 2021	231	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-74	51%
Feb 27, 2021	231	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-74	51%
Mar 05, 2021	177	@ Grand Canyon	L	69-78	22%
Mar 06, 2021	177	@ Grand Canyon	L	69-78	22%
Projected Record						8 - 13	7 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0				0.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.3	1.0	1.7	1.0	0.1					4.2	2nd
3rd								0.0	1.0	3.6	4.1	1.3	0.1						10.1	3rd
4th							0.3	2.4	6.8	5.6	1.4	0.1							16.6	4th
5th					0.0	0.7	4.4	8.9	5.5	0.9	0.0								20.6	5th
6th				0.1	1.8	6.6	8.8	4.5	0.8	0.0									22.6	6th
7th			0.2	2.0	5.3	5.2	1.7	0.2	0.0										14.5	7th
8th	0.0	0.2	1.6	3.1	2.2	0.6	0.1												7.8	8th
9th	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0													2.9	9th
10th																				10th

Total	0.2	1.0	2.8	5.8	9.4	13.1	15.3	16.0	14.1	10.5	6.6	3.2	1.4	0.4	0.0					Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
13-3	65.8%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0
12-4	19.0%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0
11-5	3.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.1%	0.0			0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2	0.0%		72.1%	72.1%		13.3										0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
13-3	0.4%		38.7%	38.7%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2
12-4	1.4%		28.8%	28.8%		14.6														0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.0
11-5	3.2%		17.5%	17.5%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	2.7
10-6	6.6%		9.6%	9.6%		15.5															0.1	0.2	0.4	6.0
9-7	10.5%		6.3%	6.3%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	9.8
8-8	14.1%		3.6%	3.6%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	13.6
7-9	16.0%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																0.0	0.5	15.5
6-10	15.3%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.2	15.1
5-11	13.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	13.0
4-12	9.4%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	9.4
3-13	5.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.8
2-14	2.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
1-15	1.0%																							1.0
0-16	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		3.8%	3.8%	0.0%	15.5										0.0			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	2.5	96.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%